Dealing in Debt
This poor blog! But I said I'd put something here and it didn't take long to decide what it would be.
The New York Times is doing a nifty series on The Debt Trap. Did I or did I not see this coming over a year ago? In going through my own battles and watching the crazy behaviors of others around the country, I knew we were headed for some serious, serious trouble. The question is: was I able to see it in time?
My family has made tremendous gains in the area of paying down debt. No car payments. No student loans. No credit card payments. One unsecured loan that will fall within the next 8 months. All while paying some major medical bills on an income of less than $50,000 per year. But we still have a morrtgage owing more than $80,000. We will have those payments for a long time.
Desperate Husband is one that I've watched for quite some time and he hasn't written much about his financial situation in quite awhile, other than his his struggle to find a new job. He rolled a lot of his debt into an equity loan into his house just like the lady in the NYT article. At the time, I was probably the only one who commented on him that told him that was a bad move. At the time he was already about upside down in his mortgage, and tapping a home equity line put him in even deeper. Now it's likely that he is so upside down that I'll have my loan paid off before he breaks even between equity and debt! And that's even though he out-earns me by around 2:1.
It bugs me that the government is being called upon to bail out the lenders and banks who helped cause this crapfest. The bailout will not help those folks who are being foreclosed on and evicted. It will help shareholders. Since I probably have bank stock in my Vanguard portfolio, I'll partially benefit I suppose. But that will be offset by the increased taxes that I (or my children) will be slapped with to pay for it. The lenders that were stupid enough to lend money out to people they knew would not be able to pay it back should be allowed to fail, go bankrupt and die.
If lenders are a business, they should be allowed to fail like any other business. That's the price of stupidity. If they are in this for charity (like they try to convince congress of) then they shouldn't be whining for a handout, either. They shouldn't foreclose on poor people, but let them stay in their houses for free. How is that any different from the handout banks are asking from the government? If we're handing stuff out, I'd rather see the people who are already in houses stay there and let the businesses pay for their own stupidity. Just hand the deed over. Then the government can still collect the property taxes or rezone the land and kick the poor off to built a shopping mall to generate even more revenue.
Yeah, just let the government take the houses so that neither the poor nor the stupid greedy lending companies can have it! Then sell it on eBay and use sales revenue to lower taxes for everybody who pays taxes.
The Debt/Bankruptcy law of 2005 needs to be repealed. It has done nothing but encourage credit card companies to behave more like thugs. They'll lure you in with a teaser rate and hammer you with the fees.
I'll give you one example of how you think you're being smart, but you are swimming with the sharks.
Say you have $10,000 in credit card debt and get an offer in the mail for a 0% rate for all credit transfers. This sounds too good to be true, but you're tired of paying big bucks on interest so you take the offer. So now you have 0% on that transfer. You might escape the trap, only if you cut that card (and the other one) up immediately and pay it off as soon as you can. But most people don't do that. As it is, you'll spend the next 5 years (or more) paying on that $10,000. Suppose you decide to buy a $1 pack of gum soon after opening up your new line of 0% credit on that new card. Guess what? You'll start paying interest on that pack of gum, and pay the interest on the interest for the next 5 years! That's because payments are applied to the transfer balance first. You don't pay a dime towards the balance you charged (or the fee and interest charges) until that big balance is paid!
Even if you don't charge, you have to pay on time every single month on a 21-day billing cycle in order to avoid a late fee of $35-40. Mess up once, and that will trigger the interest and interest-on-interest charges. These guys are like the Vegas mob. They win a whole lot more than they lose. You're aiming at a moving target and you have to hit every time.
All this assumes everything stays the same. You'll have no medical emergencies and your car never breaks down and no one loses their job or that you won't get sued or the roof doesn't start leaking or the plumbing don't break and your income keeps up with the price of food and gas.
Fat chance.
Recent reports have indicated that Americans are, for the first time since the Great Depression, negative savers. They've spent more than they have earned. Even the NYT had the savings rate to less than $400 per year. In light of those who are stowing their money in 401K's and IRA's, that's pretty astonishing. But many of those who have been putting money in during the last 20 years are beginning to take money out. Big, huge mistake. It's an even more disastrous mistake than the home equity loans.
The reason why people are casting long eyes at their retirement savings is because they were used to using their house as a piggy bank and now that's empty. The 401K is the next asset to fall before the consumerist appetite. The thing is, all of these assets are being fed to the banks. The same banks asking for government help!
I think the ball is just beginning to roll downhill. I don't think the drop will be very steep, but I do think it will be quite long. I'm looking at energy and food as the biggest areas of concern as well as the cost of credit. The banks will still have to be fed. Energy demand is being driven more by Chinese and Indian demand than what we're doing in the U.S. or Europe. Both food and energy supplies are tied to the whims of the weather. One big hurricane or one big drought in the wrong place could create a crisis. The likelihood of perfect weather over the next 5 years is pretty slim.
Oh, and we have the war and the Middle East. Right now we're dependent upon the most repressive and hostile (and unstable) regimes in the world for our energy supply. How likely is it that it stays the same or improves?
Debt is the worst possible position in an era of uncertainty. Having savings is the best possible place, because that allows options. Be wise and be responsible; get out of debt as quickly as possible. Your children will thank you later.
D.
I'm curious as to how FTN's "stick of gum" plan for 0% APR worked out.
Labels: credit, credit cards, finance, savings
